I have collected all those 15 facts on Climate Change from the "South and Central Asia regional virtual consultation on youth perspectives on Rio +20" online discussion event.
1. Ethanol blending with gasoline has got acceptance all over the world which can substitute for petrol in transportation sector. Brazil uses pure ethanol in about 20 per cent of their vehicles and a 22 to 26 per cent ethanol-petrol blend in the rest of their vehicles. The United States and Australia use a 10 per cent ethanol blend. Ethanol is widely used in the United States and in Brazil, and together both are responsible for 89% of the world's ethanol fuel production in 2008. The use of 10% ethanol fuel is mandated in some U.S. states and cities.
In our country, N.O.C. is the only authorized department to import the required petroleum up to now. The annual demand for petrol is 12,41,69,370 liters which costs 9,93,35,49,600.Thus the government is spending billions of rupees every year for the import of petroleum. So it can be seen that more than 3% of the total economy of our country is going away to third country for petrol import which could have been used in some other development to solve the problem like unemployment, price hike as well to boost the national economy.
Carbon trade using ethanol in Kathmandu valley,
Since 19th century the issue of global warming due to emission of harmful gases like CO2 was raised but was not taken seriously at that time. But towards 1950 different experiments proved that the earth is getting warmer then atmospheric CO2 was measured and found that the quantity of CO2 is increasing every year rapidly. Till 1997 the quantity of CO2 in the air was found to be 7.4 billion ton and is expected to reach up to 20 billion by 2100 AD. The vehicles and the industries are the main cause behind the emissions of such gases. Developed countries are spending 50-200 dollars to reduce the emission of one ton of CO2. Developed countries of the world emit the CO2 in very large amount and the impact is not only found within the country but all over the World.
So Nepal can grab opportunity from carbon financing in fuel switching project like ethanol blending.
100% ethanol yields 75 gm of CO2 per km so 10% will yield 7.5 gm of CO2. Hence E10 i.e. 90% gasoline and 10% ethanol together will yield 214.5 gm of CO2 per km. In this way net reduction in CO2 per km= 230 - 214.5 = 15.5 gm. (Gonsalves, 2006)
Let’s have a look over the no of vehicles and bikes of Bagmati zone and how much CO2 can be saved using E10 gasohol as fuel.
· No. of bikes = 4,40,000 (DOT, 2066/67)
· Average distance run by a single bike/annum = 7,500 km (approximately)
· Amount of CO2 reduced/km = 15.5 gm
· Hence total amount of CO2 reduced/annum by these bikes = 4,40,000*7,500*15.5 gm
=(4,40,000*7,500*15.5)/106
= 51,150 tons
Now let’s apply the same thing for petrol operated vehicles i.e. microbus & cars:
· No. of petrol operated vehicles = 56,875
· Average distance run by a single vehicle/annum =15,000 km
· Amount of CO2 reduced/km =15.5 gm
· Hence total amount of CO2 reduced/annum = 56,875*15,000*15.5 gm
= (56,875*15,000*15.5)/106 tons
= 13,223 tons
So the total amount of CO2 reduced = 51,150 + 13,223 = 64,373 tons
Total amount that can be received as a result of carbon trading = 64,373*10$
= $ 6,43,730
= Rs. 4.50 Crore
The resulting amount can be used to enhance the production of ethanol.
Nepal can take advantage from carbon trading using 10% ethanol blended gasoline as it can
reduce almost 65,000 tons of CO2 in Kathmandu Valley alone to generate the revenue of Rs.4.5
Crore for the country every year.
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2. Nepal contributes about 0.025 percent of the gobal CO2 emission .Which is even very less than the 1 percent and almost equal to the zero .Further more the percapita carbondioxide emission is also 0.11 metric ton .
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3. A limit on the total amount of greenhouse gases to be emitted by the UK in between 2023 to
2027 has been proposed to cut Britain’s emissions by 50% from 1990 levels and highlighting the Government’s commitment to being the greenest government ever.
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4. Total energy consumption of Nepal is about 9.3 million tones of oil equivalent (401 million GJ), of which 87% were derived from traditional resources (biomass), 12% from commercial sources and less than 1% from the alternative sources (WECS 2008/09). If we considered the biomass as renewable energy resource, we are in the low carbon stage but the growing pressure in the forest and increasing trend of commercial sources major concern. If there is political stability and clear vision and interest in political leaders, we have the potential to go in the low carbon path for sustainable development and youth can play the major role.
Nepal's theoretical hydropower potential is estimated at about 83,000 MW, of which 42,000 MW is economically feasible. But the sad part is we are just being able to install 689.3 MW and producing less in dry season. The total electricity demand is 940 MW and due to the huge power deficit, people are suffering from load shading up to 16 hr/day.
The potential of producing biogas is about 1.9 million plants of which 1,000,000 plants are thought to be economically viable. Already 2,00,000 biogas plants installed in various districts of
Nepal and also biogas program is developed as the first CDM project in Nepal.
The commercial potential of wind power in Nepal is 3,000 MW (AEPC, 2008) but no any project to harvest it till now.
The average solar radiation varies from 3.6–6.2 kWh/m2/day, and the sun shines for about 300 days a year. The development of solar energy technology is thus reasonably favorable in many parts of the country (AEPC). Solar house systems are the best practices in many rural community of Nepal.
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5. The eleven of the last twelve years (1995-2006) rank is warmest years in the instrumental records of global surface temperature (since 1850). The 100 year linear warming trend (1906-2006) of 0.74 o C is larger than the corresponding trend of 0.6o C (1901 -2000).The linear warming trend over last 50 years from 1906to 2005 (0.13 o C per decades).
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6. The sanitation coverage of Nepal at 1990 was 6% followed by 43% in 2009. But, it is hard to get MGD target (53%) and national target as 100% by 2017 AD. Similarly, the accessibility drinking water at mountain area is very poor though national data showed 80% coverage, but only 21%-25% are in used.
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7. In the mid 1970’s the US educated economist from Bangladesh, Professor Dr. Muhammad Yunus, then associated with University of Chittagong, observed that the conventional banks assuming that they were not creditworthy did not extend their credit schemes to the rural poor.
This situation led the poor to borrow the money from the moneylenders who turned them into slave labor with unbelievable loan conditions. Realizing the dismal situation, he approached the poor people living in the village next to the university campus and noticed that how people suffered because they could not find tiny amounts of money to carry on with their livelihood activities. He assessed the situation of the people and came up with 42 names and found the total amount they needed was USD27. This revelation was an eye-opener for the economic professor who taught elegant theories of the economics and investing billions of dollars to overcome poverty, didn’t knew that his own people were suffering at his own backyard due to lack of few pennies not even dollar. Initially he gave money to the poor from his own pocket and soon became aware that it created positive ripple effect which brought happiness to the poor people. After much effort and after representing himself as the guarantor for those loans he convinced the bank at campus to provide the loan to the poor. Eventually, after few years of expansion of the micro financing program, the project finally converted into a formal bank named Grameen Bank in 1983.
The total sum of the loan disbursed by Grameen bank since its inception is USD 10.52 billion. Out of this, USD 9.32 billion has been repaid. During the past 12 months, from April ’10 to March’ 11, Grameen Bank disbursed USD 1428.81 million. Monthly average loan disbursement over past 12 month was USD 119.07 million. The loan recovery rate is more than 95%.
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8. Over 86% of Nepal’s population lives in rural areas, more specifically in 3,915 Village Development Committees (V.D.C.) Farming is the main occupation and non-farming opportunities are very rare so the emigration is inevitable in rural Nepal (Upadhyay, 2007)
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9. The article 4.10 of the UNFCCC states that "the Parties shall take full account of the specific needs and special situations of the least developed countries in their actions with regard to funding and transfer of technology."
Based on this statement, there are many funding mechanisms established within and outside the UNFCCC process. Within the UNFCCC process, Nepal is eligible to access finance from: the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF), Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF), and the Adaptation Fund under the Kyoto Protocol. However, there is not enough funding available at present in all of these programmes. For example, the LDCF is set up to address the needs of the 48 LDCs through the preparation and implementation of NAPAs. The total required fund for the implementation of NAPA in LDCs is more than US$ 2 billion but the total amount pledged in LDCF is US$ 262 million and deposited is US$ 219 (till October 2010). Nepal also prepared its NAPA and implementation of NAPA in Nepal only requires US$ 350 million but no funding yet to implement the projects.
The scenario is similar with other funds in UNFCCC process. The Copenhagen accord mentioned that the developed countries will provide US$ 10 million every year for 2010 to 12 and US$ 1 billion every year for 2012 to 2020. The COP 16, Cancun agreed to establish another fund "Green Climate Fund" but the countries like ours are struggling to get penny from it.
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10. According to a report, because of Climate Change "close to 150,000 Indian farmers committed suicide in nine years from 1997 to 2005" While farm suicides have occurred in many States, nearly two thirds of these deaths are concentrated in five States- Maharastra, Karnataka, AP, Madhya Pradesh and Kerala- where just a third of the country’s population lives."(The Hindu November 12 2007). National 15 Social Watch Coalition (NCWC), says that at least 11,387 farmers have committed suicide between 2001 and 2006. The number of farmers’ committing suicide was much higher during 1995- 2002, In Andhra Pradesh it was estimated that more than 3,000 farmers’ committed suicide- in fact, in Andhra Pradesh the beginning of suicide started during the late 1980s than in 1990s. The Christian Aid estimated that in 2004 2,115 farmers killed themselves, which comes to around 4,378 since 1998. There are others who estimated that between 1997 and January 2006, over 9,000 peasants took their lives due to the failure of cotton crops. In one case it is estimated that within one year (May 2004-September 2005) 2157 farmers’ committed suicide. In Maharashtra, the Vidharbha has become the centre of agrarian crisis- wherein the number of farmers committing suicide is much more. It is estimated that between June 2005 and May 2006 at least 500 farmers’ committed suicide in which majority of them are cotton growers. In fact, the Indira Gandhi Institute for Development Research in Mumbai, which was commissioned to investigate into the rural crisis in Maharashtra in its report, “suicides of farmers in Maharashtra" pinpointed that the Suicide Mortality Rate (SMR) for the male farmers had increased by three folds from 17 per 1,00,000 in 1995 to 53 in 2004. This is four times more than the national average. The suicide is now reported from Rajasthan, Haryana, M.P, Gujarat and Kerala too.
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11. In case of Pakistan, where nearly one-quarter of the population is classified as poor (World
Resource Institute 2007), where Human Development Index is 0.539 and 74 percent population is living under $2 a day. Agriculture (predominantly depends on irrigation) contributes to 24 percent of the GDP and employs 46% population, where 68% population is rural which is directly or indirectly depends on agriculture, where industries and 80% exports are almost agro-based, where the forest cover is low (4.5%) while deforestation rate is 0.2- 0.4 % per annum, is among the 17 countries facing water shortages and is among the 36 countries having serious threat of food crisis (WB 2009). Pakistan is ranked 12th in the list of most vulnerable countries to climate change (Maplecroft 2007) Losing at least 5% of GDP each year (may be upto 20%). Climate Change is also taking place on the other hand. The GHG emission share is 0.43% of world’s total (135th ranking). Temperature rise has been recorded 0.6 to 1.0° since early 1900s
(IPCC 2007) while decrease in precipitation is recorded 10 to 15% over the last 40 years with
18-32% increases in rainfall in monsoon zone specially the sub-humid and humid areas (IPCC 2007). Other current climate change trends in Pakistan includes:
1. 0.5 – 0.7 % increase in solar radiation in southern half of country.
2. Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years and decrease of flows by up to 30 to 40% (GCISC 2008).
3. 3-5% decrease in cloud cover in central Pakistan with increase hours in sunshine.
4. 3-5% increase in Evapotranspirative rate due to 0.9 Degrees increase in temperature expanding aridity outside monsoon zone and arid regions.
5. 17-64% departure of rainfall from normal during EL-Niño events (PMD 2010)
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12. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - 2001, reported that global temperatures are expected to rise between 1.4 and 5.8ºC by 2100.
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13. The Rio Earth Summit 1992 is the milestone in highlighting sustainable development globally with its outcomes as *Rio Declaration, Forest Principles, Convention on Biodiversity, Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Agenda 21*. Where do we stand in implementing agenda 21 and other outcomes of Rio as we already spent 20 years from the summit?
It is necessary answer.
The development plan of government of Nepal has set *COMBATING POVERTY*, one of the agenda from Agenda 21 as its main objective and aimed to bring down the number of those below poverty line. Since ninth plan (1997-2002) thepopulation which falls below poverty line decline from 42 % to 31%. However, Nepal is in 157th position of 164 countries worldwide with its per capita GDP of US$ 427 (World Bank 2009). 55% of the population lives on less than $1.25 per day and the new Multi-dimensional Poverty Index (MPI) measures 65%
of the population as multi-dimensionally poor. To implement the agenda *INTEGRATING ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT IN DECISION-MAKING*, Environmental Protection Council under the chair of prime minister has been formed in Nepal but the council is struggling even to have the regular meeting. Formulation of Environment Protection Act 1996 and EP Regulation 1997, which sets the legal framework for the integration of environmental issues into the development programmes is one of the major outcomes. It has also developed the guidelines for the EIA and IEE studies. There are some other policy documents as well but the efficiency of its implementation is not high and periodic amendments have very rarely occurred.
*CHANGING CONSUMPTION PATTERNS,* especially in energy is also one of the important agendas. Total energy consumption in the country has increased by about 2.4% annually and the growth of renewable energy consumption is highest with 15%. However, its share in total energy consumption is just 1%, where the share of traditional biomass resources is 87% and commercial energy resources are 12 % (WECS 2008/09). Import of only unleaded, EURO III standard and 300 ppm sulfur content petroleum is some good initiatives in Nepal but the developed world already reached to the EURO V and VI standard.
*DEMOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS AND SUSTAINABILITY:* Total country population in 2001 was 23.2 million with annual growth rate of 2.25 % per annum where estimated population of the country in 2010 is 28.9 million with the growth rate of 1.47 % (CBS). Nepal placed in 164th position worldwide based on its average life expectancy, which is of 67 year (2009) and it was 54 in 1990 and just 43 in 1970 (UNICEF). Even though the urban population is only 17 %, the rate of urbanization is little high with 4.9% (2005-10 estimated).
*PROTECTING AND PROMOTING HUMAN HEALTH:* In general, the health status of the population in Nepal is still poor. Lack of potable water and sanitation, sufficient food supplies and medical facilities are the major contributing factors. Around 90 % of urban households and 80 % of rural households have access to drinking water but only about 37 % of urban households, and 20 %of rural households have access to sanitation and are using improved latrines (Health Survey, 2008). Still around 10,500 children’s below age of five are dying annually due to the water born diseases and people are losing their life due to epidemics.
Nepal is heavily struggling to implement the agenda.
COMBATING DEFORESTATION
*. The forest sector used to cover more than 45 percent area of the country according to the statistics of 1964. Forest and shrub cover in 1978/79 was about 42% which reduced to a level of
37% in 2005 with an annual deforestation rate of 0.5% (WECS 2009). According to government statistics, the year 2010 saw the worst deforestation in the last three decades with more than
80,000 hectares of forest cover.
For the *CONSERVATION OF BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY*, few efforts are made. Prime minister declares to extend the conservation area to 25 % from 20 % and forest cover to 40% through "Kalapatthar Declaration" in 2009. But the decline in forest cover due to habitat destruction, overgrazing and fire, commercial trade, illegal hunting and poaching, climate change have increased pressure on bio-diversity.
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14. The dates of 3-14 June 1992 remains one of most exciting landmark milestones in the environmental history of the planet. It was the time almost 19 years ago, when 172 governments, with 108 heads of state or government and some 2,400 representatives of non-governmental organizations gathered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil to discuss on future of the planet earth. They were supported by another 17,000 people at the parallel NGO "Global Forum" with Consultative Status. The event was the first ever United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) or the Rio Summit – the first major environment conference of the United Nations after the Stockholm Summit in 1972 and unanimously the most important environmental event until today.
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15. One villager who had three daughters, all married and staying with their respective husbands in nearby villages. The farmer would visit his daughters once a year. During one such visit he had the following experience:
His youngest daughter, married to a farmer, wanted her father to pray for timely rains such that they could have a bountiful harvest and prosper. Which father would not want his son-in-law to be prosperous?
Married to a washer man, the second daughter wished for more sunny days such that the clothes could dry in time for the couple to sustain their year-round income. Could the father wish well for his second daughter at the cost of her younger sibling? Hardly had the old man extricated himself from the predicament that the eldest daughter compounded the confusion further. Married to a potter, the eldest daughter expressed desire for more sunny days but without any decline of flow in the small rivulet flowing next door.
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